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Spike bucket

07/17/2026, 3:38:00 P.M.

Minute-level breakdown for Cyprus-1: top transfers, active addresses, confidence, and whale-alert context.

Window: 07/17/2026, 3:38:00 P.M. to 07/17/2026, 3:39:00 P.M.

Partially observable spike

medium confidence

100% coverage

Coverage

Explained QUAI: 14,889.44

Unexplained QUAI: 14.44

Facts

Pattern: Mixed spike

Dominant transfer: 69% of explained volume

Relative context

2.6x above local average

Interpretation

This spike is partially explained by multiple visible transfers.

One transfer stands out, but supporting activity also contributes materially.

Shard

Cyprus-1

Bucket tx

Observable rows

60.0% of bucket activity rendered as rows

Unique addresses

Asset volume

14,903.88 QUAI

Avg confidence

62.0%

Dominant source: account-shape-default

Event intelligence

high priority

What happened

Top actor concentration: 0x006243e4eE6C2CF6F993036f27f0A88f265Ddb4a • 0x0040Fe2BDBb75B322BBF1E00D3Ec4548AF80a3Ab.

Dominant behavior: distribution

distribution + medium confidence + 14904 QUAI

This spike combines meaningful size, confidence, and actor concentration in a short time window.

Importance score: 45

Why this spike matters now

Top actor concentration around 0x006243e4eE6C2CF6F993036f27f0A88f265Ddb4a • 0x0040Fe2BDBb75B322BBF1E00D3Ec4548AF80a3Ab.

No repeated counterparty pattern detected yet.

Confidence context: medium • Source context: account-shape-default

Evidence & confidence

Limited evidence • Source coverage not explicitly available

Based on: 1 related signal • 3 visible transfer rows

Confidence medium • Source account-shape-default

Limits: limited transfer depth in current window • no repeated pair pattern yet

Data provenance & freshness

Source health: limited • High freshness drift

Stale context window • Broad source coverage

Last updated: 07/17/2026, 3:38:00 P.M.

Coverage gaps appear limited

Based on: 1 related signal • 3 transfer rows • 2 sources • Sources: account-shape-default • spike_detail_window

Freshness/coverage limits reduce confidence; treat this as directional context, not complete proof.

Data reliability is degraded; confidence, guidance, and KPI interpretation should be treated conservatively.

Limits: context is stale; confidence should be treated conservatively • transfer sample depth is limited in the current window • freshness drift is high across the visible sample window

Why now

Watching status suggests a follow-up scan. Probable actor type is exchange (high confidence).

What to do next

Prioritize exchange-bound and exchange-outflow checks first.

What to verify

Confirm behavior (distribution).
Validate exchange context using label/source evidence.
Identity hint: Explicit label identifies exchange context.

Top actors in this event

MEXC hot wallet

Net receiver

Exchange

14,889.44 QUAI across 3 visible rows

Known watch context

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x0040Fe2BDBb75B322BBF1E00D3Ec4548AF80a3Ab

Net sender

Unknown type

10,270.84 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x007999ff29a5e33A70Ada63397782A8604E010EA

Net receiver

Unknown type

3,314.26 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x004a6CCE919d3E359b135Eb543BBCcB6818E8164

Net sender

Unknown type

1,304.34 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

Relationship intelligence

Repeated flow pairs

No repeated pair pattern detected in the current visible sample.

Type concentration

To exchange: 11,575.18 QUAI

From exchange: 3,314.26 QUAI

Whale to whale: 0 QUAI

Alert context Signal feed

Evidence checks

Read-only spike evidence. Canonical investigations are evaluated by the server.

Confirm distribution still matches latest flow.
Recheck context: Partially observable spike • Cyprus-1.
Review latest signal or spike before changing status.

Autonomous outcome

Read-only canonical source

Cyprus-1 spike

This spike combines meaningful size, confidence, and actor concentration in a short time window.

Outcome is assigned by the autonomous evaluator.

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3 observable transfers were found for this minute, but the bucket total is 5. The remaining 2 entries are chain transactions that were not stored as displayable transfer rows in the current dataset, typically because they are non-value, self, contract/system, or otherwise non-observable transfer activity.