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Spike bucket

07/16/2026, 3:26:00 P.M.

Minute-level breakdown for Cyprus-1: top transfers, active addresses, confidence, and whale-alert context.

Window: 07/16/2026, 3:26:00 P.M. to 07/16/2026, 3:27:00 P.M.

Partially observable spike

low confidence

9% coverage

Coverage

Explained QUAI: 843.99

Unexplained QUAI: 8,216.61

Facts

Pattern: Distributed activity

Dominant transfer: 34% of explained volume

Relative context

0.3x above local average

1.6x previous minute

0.9x next minute

Interpretation

This spike is partially explained by distributed visible activity.

The spike appears distributed, but some of the bucket still remains unexplained.

Shard

Cyprus-1

Bucket tx

Observable rows

12.0% of bucket activity rendered as rows

Unique addresses

Asset volume

9,060.6 QUAI

Avg confidence

62.0%

Dominant source: account-shape-default

Event intelligence

medium priority

What happened

Top actor concentration: 0x007e2F1a4709B812F339f22E18032118FBcc8987 • 0x00415f09816976684b248044c91A62020d85B568.

Dominant behavior: mixed flow

mixed_flow + low confidence + 9061 QUAI

This spike combines meaningful size, confidence, and actor concentration in a short time window.

Importance score: 27

Why this spike matters now

Top actor concentration around 0x007e2F1a4709B812F339f22E18032118FBcc8987 • 0x00415f09816976684b248044c91A62020d85B568.

No repeated counterparty pattern detected yet.

Confidence context: low • Source context: account-shape-default

Evidence & confidence

Limited evidence • Source coverage not explicitly available

Based on: 1 related signal • 3 visible transfer rows

Confidence low • Source account-shape-default

Limits: limited transfer depth in current window • no repeated pair pattern yet • confidence remains low

Data provenance & freshness

Source health: limited • High freshness drift

Stale context window • Thin source coverage

Last updated: 07/16/2026, 3:26:00 P.M.

Coverage gap high (91% not covered)

Based on: 1 related signal • 3 transfer rows • 2 sources • Sources: account-shape-default • spike_detail_window

Freshness/coverage limits reduce confidence; treat this as directional context, not complete proof.

Data reliability is degraded; confidence, guidance, and KPI interpretation should be treated conservatively.

Limits: context is stale; confidence should be treated conservatively • source coverage is thin; unseen counterpart activity may be missing • transfer sample depth is limited in the current window • observable coverage remains partial (9%) • freshness drift is high across the visible sample window

Why now

Watching status suggests a follow-up scan. Probable actor type is exchange (high confidence).

What to do next

Prioritize exchange-bound and exchange-outflow checks first.

What to verify

Confirm behavior (mixed flow).
Validate exchange context using label/source evidence.
Identity hint: Explicit label identifies exchange context.

Top actors in this event

Gate.io hot wallet

Net receiver

Exchange

843.99 QUAI across 3 visible rows

Known watch context

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x00415f09816976684b248044c91A62020d85B568

Net sender

Unknown type

289.67 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x003Ae0bBb0BA9B92C0C6f21C68f34a30D0122402

Net sender

Unknown type

277.4 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x0040229c8A405cb5fE47F810C52A04382e0C10b0

Net sender

Unknown type

276.92 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

Relationship intelligence

Repeated flow pairs

No repeated pair pattern detected in the current visible sample.

Type concentration

To exchange: 843.99 QUAI

From exchange: 0 QUAI

Whale to whale: 0 QUAI

Alert context Signal feed

Evidence checks

Read-only spike evidence. Canonical investigations are evaluated by the server.

Confirm mixed flow still matches latest flow.
Recheck context: Partially observable spike • Cyprus-1.
Review latest signal or spike before changing status.

Autonomous outcome

Read-only canonical source

Cyprus-1 spike

This spike combines meaningful size, confidence, and actor concentration in a short time window.

Outcome is assigned by the autonomous evaluator.

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3 observable transfers were found for this minute, but the bucket total is 25. The remaining 22 entries are chain transactions that were not stored as displayable transfer rows in the current dataset, typically because they are non-value, self, contract/system, or otherwise non-observable transfer activity.