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Spike bucket

07/16/2026, 12:19:00 P.M.

Minute-level breakdown for Cyprus-1: top transfers, active addresses, confidence, and whale-alert context.

Window: 07/16/2026, 12:19:00 P.M. to 07/16/2026, 12:20:00 P.M.

Partially observable spike

low confidence

40% coverage

Coverage

Explained QUAI: 32,553.7

Unexplained QUAI: 48,781.84

Facts

Pattern: Mixed spike

Dominant transfer: 68% of explained volume

Relative context

1.6x above local average

0.4x previous minute

3.7x next minute

Interpretation

This spike is partially explained by multiple visible transfers.

One transfer stands out, but supporting activity also contributes materially.

Shard

Cyprus-1

Bucket tx

Observable rows

28.6% of bucket activity rendered as rows

Unique addresses

Asset volume

81,335.54 QUAI

Avg confidence

62.0%

Dominant source: account-shape-default

Event intelligence

medium priority

What happened

Top actor concentration: 0x007e2F1a4709B812F339f22E18032118FBcc8987 • 0x0021147eBDB550Cd8b837AcE872FB3b90F973e42.

Dominant behavior: distribution

distribution + low confidence + 81336 QUAI

This spike combines meaningful size, confidence, and actor concentration in a short time window.

Importance score: 42

Why this spike matters now

Top actor concentration around 0x007e2F1a4709B812F339f22E18032118FBcc8987 • 0x0021147eBDB550Cd8b837AcE872FB3b90F973e42.

No repeated counterparty pattern detected yet.

Confidence context: low • Source context: account-shape-default

Evidence & confidence

Limited evidence • Source coverage not explicitly available

Based on: 1 related signal • 2 visible transfer rows

Confidence low • Source account-shape-default

Limits: limited transfer depth in current window • no repeated pair pattern yet • confidence remains low

Data provenance & freshness

Source health: limited • High freshness drift

Stale context window • Thin source coverage

Last updated: 07/16/2026, 12:19:00 P.M.

Coverage gap high (60% not covered)

Based on: 1 related signal • 2 transfer rows • 2 sources • Sources: account-shape-default • spike_detail_window

Freshness/coverage limits reduce confidence; treat this as directional context, not complete proof.

Data reliability is degraded; confidence, guidance, and KPI interpretation should be treated conservatively.

Limits: context is stale; confidence should be treated conservatively • source coverage is thin; unseen counterpart activity may be missing • transfer sample depth is limited in the current window • observable coverage remains partial (40%) • freshness drift is high across the visible sample window

Why now

Watching status suggests a follow-up scan. Probable actor type is exchange (high confidence).

What to do next

Prioritize exchange-bound and exchange-outflow checks first.

What to verify

Confirm behavior (distribution).
Validate exchange context using label/source evidence.
Identity hint: Explicit label identifies exchange context.

Top actors in this event

Gate.io hot wallet

Net sender

Exchange

22,272.12 QUAI across 1 visible row

Known watch context

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x0021147eBDB550Cd8b837AcE872FB3b90F973e42

Net receiver

Unknown type

22,272.12 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x0004bd2675df7f120FfF0F14a31E203C449B4B81

Net sender

Unknown type

10,281.57 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x0040Fe2BDBb75B322BBF1E00D3Ec4548AF80a3Ab

Net receiver

Unknown type

10,281.57 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

Relationship intelligence

Repeated flow pairs

No repeated pair pattern detected in the current visible sample.

Type concentration

To exchange: 0 QUAI

From exchange: 22,272.12 QUAI

Whale to whale: 0 QUAI

Alert context Signal feed

Evidence checks

Read-only spike evidence. Canonical investigations are evaluated by the server.

Confirm distribution still matches latest flow.
Recheck context: Partially observable spike • Cyprus-1.
Review latest signal or spike before changing status.

Autonomous outcome

Read-only canonical source

Cyprus-1 spike

This spike combines meaningful size, confidence, and actor concentration in a short time window.

Outcome is assigned by the autonomous evaluator.

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2 observable transfers were found for this minute, but the bucket total is 7. The remaining 5 entries are chain transactions that were not stored as displayable transfer rows in the current dataset, typically because they are non-value, self, contract/system, or otherwise non-observable transfer activity.