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Spike bucket

07/14/2026, 3:23:00 P.M.

Minute-level breakdown for Cyprus-1: top transfers, active addresses, confidence, and whale-alert context.

Window: 07/14/2026, 3:23:00 P.M. to 07/14/2026, 3:24:00 P.M.

Partially observable spike

low confidence

29% coverage

Coverage

Explained QUAI: 18,898.98

Unexplained QUAI: 45,789.1

Facts

Pattern: Distributed activity

Dominant transfer: 8% of explained volume

Relative context

1.5x above local average

0.7x previous minute

1.0x next minute

Interpretation

This spike is partially explained by distributed visible activity.

The spike appears distributed, but some of the bucket still remains unexplained.

Shard

Cyprus-1

Bucket tx

Observable rows

89.5% of bucket activity rendered as rows

Unique addresses

Asset volume

64,688.08 QUAI

Avg confidence

62.0%

Dominant source: account-shape-default

Event intelligence

medium priority

What happened

Top actor concentration: 0x007e2F1a4709B812F339f22E18032118FBcc8987 • 0x00196cd933929373dFB2E0c76206A5ae4Aa95838.

Dominant behavior: mixed flow

mixed_flow + low confidence + 64688 QUAI

This spike combines meaningful size, confidence, and actor concentration in a short time window.

Importance score: 32

Why this spike matters now

Top actor concentration around 0x007e2F1a4709B812F339f22E18032118FBcc8987 • 0x00196cd933929373dFB2E0c76206A5ae4Aa95838.

No repeated counterparty pattern detected yet.

Confidence context: low • Source context: account-shape-default

Evidence & confidence

Limited evidence • Source coverage not explicitly available

Based on: 1 related signal • 17 visible transfer rows

Confidence low • Source account-shape-default

Limits: no repeated pair pattern yet • confidence remains low

Data provenance & freshness

Source health: limited • High freshness drift

Stale context window • Thin source coverage

Last updated: 07/14/2026, 3:23:00 P.M.

Coverage gap high (71% not covered)

Based on: 1 related signal • 17 transfer rows • 2 sources • Sources: account-shape-default • spike_detail_window

Freshness/coverage limits reduce confidence; treat this as directional context, not complete proof.

Data reliability is degraded; confidence, guidance, and KPI interpretation should be treated conservatively.

Limits: context is stale; confidence should be treated conservatively • source coverage is thin; unseen counterpart activity may be missing • observable coverage remains partial (29%) • freshness drift is high across the visible sample window

Why now

Watching status suggests a follow-up scan. Probable actor type is exchange (high confidence).

What to do next

Prioritize exchange-bound and exchange-outflow checks first.

What to verify

Confirm behavior (mixed flow).
Validate exchange context using label/source evidence.
Identity hint: Explicit label identifies exchange context.

Top actors in this event

Gate.io hot wallet

Net receiver

Exchange

18,898.98 QUAI across 17 visible rows

Known watch context

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x00196cd933929373dFB2E0c76206A5ae4Aa95838

Net sender

Unknown type

1,430.92 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x000969EAfe64abb852Ee9d9b30A79845a04a97fa

Net sender

Unknown type

1,404.32 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x00239812dAd1583Bf5C81326E3448F273f6628f2

Net sender

Unknown type

1,340.22 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x00054a786531c76C6FEE8ea225EEA43aEc70643c

Net sender

Unknown type

1,240.17 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

Relationship intelligence

Repeated flow pairs

No repeated pair pattern detected in the current visible sample.

Type concentration

To exchange: 18,898.98 QUAI

From exchange: 0 QUAI

Whale to whale: 0 QUAI

Alert context Signal feed

Evidence checks

Read-only spike evidence. Canonical investigations are evaluated by the server.

Confirm mixed flow still matches latest flow.
Recheck context: Partially observable spike • Cyprus-1.
Review latest signal or spike before changing status.

Autonomous outcome

Read-only canonical source

Cyprus-1 spike

This spike combines meaningful size, confidence, and actor concentration in a short time window.

Outcome is assigned by the autonomous evaluator.

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17 observable transfers were found for this minute, but the bucket total is 19. The remaining 2 entries are chain transactions that were not stored as displayable transfer rows in the current dataset, typically because they are non-value, self, contract/system, or otherwise non-observable transfer activity.