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Spike bucket

07/14/2026, 2:57:00 P.M.

Minute-level breakdown for Cyprus-1: top transfers, active addresses, confidence, and whale-alert context.

Window: 07/14/2026, 2:57:00 P.M. to 07/14/2026, 2:58:00 P.M.

Partially observable spike

medium confidence

66% coverage

Whale-driven spike detected

Coverage

Explained QUAI: 8,453.55

Unexplained QUAI: 4,354.55

Facts

Pattern: Whale-driven spike

Dominant transfer: 96% of explained volume

Relative context

2.5x above local average

26x previous minute

1.0x next minute

Interpretation

Most of this spike is explained by one dominant transfer.

A single transfer leads the visible activity, but some of the bucket remains unexplained.

Shard

Cyprus-1

Bucket tx

Observable rows

50.0% of bucket activity rendered as rows

Unique addresses

Asset volume

12,808.1 QUAI

Avg confidence

62.0%

Dominant source: account-shape-default

Event intelligence

high priority

What happened

Top actor concentration: 0x007e2F1a4709B812F339f22E18032118FBcc8987 • 0x000498fB8A96673782f90042770aA72DDaf4fB98.

Dominant behavior: whale rotation

whale_rotation + medium confidence + 12808 QUAI

Large flow appears concentrated across whale-linked actors, suggesting coordinated reallocation.

Importance score: 53

Why this spike matters now

Top actor concentration around 0x007e2F1a4709B812F339f22E18032118FBcc8987 • 0x000498fB8A96673782f90042770aA72DDaf4fB98.

0x00700BD124Ffab1f7062D177aF1BB323Efee2665 -> 0x000d6795e06eA4F460CA9572a51741342156305A (2 repeated flows).

Confidence context: medium • Source context: account-shape-default

Evidence & confidence

Limited evidence • Source coverage not explicitly available

Based on: 1 related signal • 3 visible transfer rows • 1 repeated counterpart flow

Confidence medium • Source account-shape-default

Limits: limited transfer depth in current window

Data provenance & freshness

Source health: limited • High freshness drift

Stale context window • Partial source coverage

Last updated: 07/14/2026, 2:57:00 P.M.

Coverage gap moderate (34% not covered)

Based on: 1 related signal • 3 transfer rows • 2 sources • Sources: account-shape-default • spike_detail_window

Freshness/coverage limits reduce confidence; treat this as directional context, not complete proof.

Data reliability is degraded; confidence, guidance, and KPI interpretation should be treated conservatively.

Limits: context is stale; confidence should be treated conservatively • transfer sample depth is limited in the current window • freshness drift is high across the visible sample window

Why now

Watching status suggests a follow-up scan. Probable actor type is exchange (high confidence).

What to do next

Prioritize exchange-bound and exchange-outflow checks first.

What to verify

Confirm behavior (whale rotation).
Validate exchange context using label/source evidence.
Identity hint: Explicit label identifies exchange context.

Top actors in this event

Gate.io hot wallet

Net sender

Exchange

8,103.55 QUAI across 1 visible row

Known watch context

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x000498fB8A96673782f90042770aA72DDaf4fB98

Net receiver

Unknown type

8,103.55 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x00700BD124Ffab1f7062D177aF1BB323Efee2665

Net sender

Unknown type

350 QUAI across 2 visible rows

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x000d6795e06eA4F460CA9572a51741342156305A

Net receiver

Unknown type

350 QUAI across 2 visible rows

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

Relationship intelligence

Repeated flow pairs

0x00700BD124Ffab1f7062D177aF1BB323Efee2665 → 0x000d6795e06eA4F460CA9572a51741342156305A

2 repeated flows • 350 QUAI

Type concentration

To exchange: 0 QUAI

From exchange: 8,103.55 QUAI

Whale to whale: 0 QUAI

Alert context Signal feed

Evidence checks

Read-only spike evidence. Canonical investigations are evaluated by the server.

Confirm whale rotation still matches latest flow.
Recheck context: Partially observable spike • Cyprus-1.
Review latest signal or spike before changing status.

Autonomous outcome

Read-only canonical source

Cyprus-1 spike

Large flow appears concentrated across whale-linked actors, suggesting coordinated reallocation.

Outcome is assigned by the autonomous evaluator.

View investigations

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3 observable transfers were found for this minute, but the bucket total is 6. The remaining 3 entries are chain transactions that were not stored as displayable transfer rows in the current dataset, typically because they are non-value, self, contract/system, or otherwise non-observable transfer activity.