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Spike bucket

07/10/2026, 3:15:00 P.M.

Minute-level breakdown for Cyprus-1: top transfers, active addresses, confidence, and whale-alert context.

Window: 07/10/2026, 3:15:00 P.M. to 07/10/2026, 3:16:00 P.M.

Partially observable spike

medium confidence

66% coverage

Coverage

Explained QUAI: 318.24

Unexplained QUAI: 161.38

Facts

Pattern: Distributed activity

Dominant transfer: 33% of explained volume

Relative context

0.0x above local average

3.0x previous minute

1.0x next minute

Interpretation

This spike is partially explained by distributed visible activity.

The spike appears distributed, but some of the bucket still remains unexplained.

Shard

Cyprus-1

Bucket tx

Observable rows

83.3% of bucket activity rendered as rows

Unique addresses

Asset volume

479.61 QUAI

Avg confidence

62.0%

Dominant source: account-shape-default

Event intelligence

medium priority

What happened

Top actor concentration: 0x006243e4eE6C2CF6F993036f27f0A88f265Ddb4a • 0x004C3fD1B05B51517F05046e02c9556326E9b611.

Dominant behavior: mixed flow

mixed_flow + medium confidence + 480 QUAI

This spike combines meaningful size, confidence, and actor concentration in a short time window.

Importance score: 35

Why this spike matters now

Top actor concentration around 0x006243e4eE6C2CF6F993036f27f0A88f265Ddb4a • 0x004C3fD1B05B51517F05046e02c9556326E9b611.

No repeated counterparty pattern detected yet.

Confidence context: medium • Source context: account-shape-default

Evidence & confidence

Limited evidence • Source coverage not explicitly available

Based on: 1 related signal • 5 visible transfer rows

Confidence medium • Source account-shape-default

Limits: limited transfer depth in current window • no repeated pair pattern yet

Data provenance & freshness

Source health: limited • High freshness drift

Stale context window • Partial source coverage

Last updated: 07/10/2026, 3:15:00 P.M.

Coverage gap moderate (34% not covered)

Based on: 1 related signal • 5 transfer rows • 2 sources • Sources: account-shape-default • spike_detail_window

Freshness/coverage limits reduce confidence; treat this as directional context, not complete proof.

Data reliability is degraded; confidence, guidance, and KPI interpretation should be treated conservatively.

Limits: context is stale; confidence should be treated conservatively • transfer sample depth is limited in the current window • freshness drift is high across the visible sample window

Why now

Watching status suggests a follow-up scan. Probable actor type is exchange (high confidence).

What to do next

Prioritize exchange-bound and exchange-outflow checks first.

What to verify

Confirm behavior (mixed flow).
Validate exchange context using label/source evidence.
Identity hint: Explicit label identifies exchange context.

Top actors in this event

MEXC hot wallet

Net receiver

Exchange

308.11 QUAI across 3 visible rows

Known watch context

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x004C3fD1B05B51517F05046e02c9556326E9b611

Net sender

Unknown type

104.56 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x0045f0A51D2cFC3B573a7DCc2C14AD3C47C3f58e

Net sender

Unknown type

102.65 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x002536BB0CcD07e62c83B286069BA9f73250eaA0

Net sender

Unknown type

100.9 QUAI across 1 visible row

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

0x001D6024eadCc759ec8d61E5411918E336A24519

Net receiver

Unknown type

10.13 QUAI across 2 visible rows

Actor intelligence Wallet profile

Relationship intelligence

Repeated flow pairs

No repeated pair pattern detected in the current visible sample.

Type concentration

To exchange: 308.11 QUAI

From exchange: 0 QUAI

Whale to whale: 0 QUAI

Alert context Signal feed

Evidence checks

Read-only spike evidence. Canonical investigations are evaluated by the server.

Confirm mixed flow still matches latest flow.
Recheck context: Partially observable spike • Cyprus-1.
Review latest signal or spike before changing status.

Autonomous outcome

Read-only canonical source

Cyprus-1 spike

This spike combines meaningful size, confidence, and actor concentration in a short time window.

Outcome is assigned by the autonomous evaluator.

View investigations

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5 observable transfers were found for this minute, but the bucket total is 6. The remaining 1 entries are chain transactions that were not stored as displayable transfer rows in the current dataset, typically because they are non-value, self, contract/system, or otherwise non-observable transfer activity.